Blackjack Insurance Example
2021年4月12日Register here: http://gg.gg/p0gq8
Michael Shackleford: Hi guys, this is Mike and the purpose of today’s Wizard of Odds Academy lesson will be to explain why you should never take insurance in Blackjack. What insurance is, is a side bet that the dealer has a 10 point card in the hole.
The working and applicability of Blackjack insurance. If you are starting the games in Live Casinos, you have to go through the complete information about the game to have accurate moves placed.You have to act wisely to beat the opponent with sharp moves, and you should know the exact scenarios to hit perfect and hard to beat up the fixed total. So for example, if you had placed a $10 bet you will then have to wager an extra $5 for the insurance to be in play. Then, if the dealer exposes his second card and he does indeed have Blackjack, then you win your insurance $5 back as well as the other half your original bet, due to insurance paying 2:1. If the dealer’s up card (the card that is showing) is an ace, you are allowed to make an “insurance” bet. This is a side bet that the dealer has a ten-value card as the down card, giving the dealer a Blackjack. The dealer will ask for insurance bets from all players before the first player plays. Blackjack Insurance Example, discount poker tables forsale, gratis roulette spelen amsterdam casino, voetbalvereniging sloterdijk adres.
It is offered when the dealer already has an ace up, so it wins in the event that the dealer gets a blackjack. The insurance bet can be made for up to half of the player’s original bet and it pays two to one if it wins.
I’m going to…
…put a two for the pace if the dealer has a 10 point card in the hole and a negative one if the dealer has an ace and a nine which represents that the player lost his insurance bet.
Let’s assume six packs of cards, shall we?
Assuming no other information other than the ace up the dealer already has, there are 96 winning cards for the insurance bet, 16 times 6 out of 311 left. There’s 311 because a full six-deck shoe is 312 cards and we take one out because of the dealer’s ace, and there are 215 cards that will cause the insurance bet to lose.
Let’s take the product of the win and the probability.
2 times 96 over 311 is 61.74% and 215 divided by 311 times -1 is -69.13%. In other words, the player can expect to win 61.74% of his bet and lose 69.13% of his bet. We take the sum which is -7.40%. That means that for every dollar the player bets on insurance, he can expect to lose 7.4 cents or 7.4% of whatever his insurance bet is.
7.4% is a pretty high house advantage and consequently, I recommend that you say no to insurance every time. Before someone says in the comments, ’Mike, what if the count is good? What if I’m counting cards?’
Yes. Then, of course, there are exceptions. If you’ve been counting cards and you know that the remaining cards are very 10 rich, but for the recreational player that’s not counting, insurance is a terrible bet and, again, I recommend you decline it every time.
’What about even money?’
You might be asking me. Well, let me explain to you first of all, that the even money offer is the same thing as taking insurance. It’s only offered when the player already has a blackjack and the dealer has an ace up.
Let’s look…
…at what would happen both ways if the player has a blackjack and takes insurance. If the dealer ends up getting that blackjack, the main bet will push, so it wins nothing, but the insurance but will win one unit because the player bets half a unit on insurance. The insurance but pays two to one on the winning blackjack. One-half times two equals one.
Next…
If the dealer does not get that blackjack, the player’s main wager will pay one and a half but he will lose half a unit on the insurance. The combined when between the main wager and the insurance wager is one unit when the dealer does get a blackjack and one unit when the dealer does not get a blackjack.
It doesn’t make any difference whether or not the dealer gets a blackjack. If the player has a blackjack and takes insurance, he wins one unit either way and what the dealer is essentially saying is, ’Look, if you take insurance, you’re going to win one to one regardless if I have a blackjack. I may as well just pay you now before I even check what I have.”
It sounds attractive but let’s do some math and see if you should take it. Let’s evaluate the situation where the player has a blackjack, the dealer has an ace up and the player declines insurance. If the dealer has a 10 in the hole, then the player will win nothing because it will be a blackjack against blackjack tie, in other words, a push. If the dealer has anything else in the hole, the player will win his full three to two on his wager or 1.5.
Let’s assume:
knowledge of no other cards in the shoe other than what’s already on the table. There are 309 cards left out of the 312 card shoe, less than three cards already involved, the player’s ace and 10 and the dealers ace.
The probability that the dealer has a 10 in the hole is 95 divided by 309. Like I just said, there’s 309 cards left, the shoe started with 96 tens but the player has one of them. The chances that the dealer has an ace to 9 in the hole is 214 divided by 309.
Let’s examine what the player can get back either way:
If the dealer does have that 10 in the hole, the player can expect to get back nothing because the probability of zero times anything is zero. If the dealer does not have a 10 in the hole, the player can expect to get back 1.5 with a probability of 214 divided by 309. The product of those two numbers is 103.88%. If we add them up, it’s obvious you still get that same 103.88%.
What this means is…
…if the player has a blackjack, the dealer has an ace up, the player can expect to win 1.0388 times his bet or about 104% of whatever he bet. The decision to whether or not to take even money is the decision; do you want to get back an average of 103.88% of your bet or just 100%?What’s more? 100% or 103.88%? Well, 103.88% is more, therefore, if you’re seeking the greater expected value, which you should be in any casino game, you should decline even money and go for that 103.88%.
Few caveats here:
Number one - again this is assuming the player is not counting cards, just a recreational player. Number two - this is assuming that a blackjack pays three to two.
Finally, this question has come up on my forum every once in a while and a lot of people use the argument that yes, I make a good mathematical argument for declining an insurance even money but what about the psychological argument?
If you’re in this situation with a blackjack against the dealer ace, some people will say you have a 100% chance of being happy by taking the even money, locking in a sure win but only a 69.26% chance of being happy by declining the even money.
Those figures are right but…
…in the casino as well as real life, you should be long-term minded. You should be thinking what is the expected average gain for any decision that you make? Do not always play conservatively and lock in the small win when the average win by taking a chance is greater.
Of course, there are exceptions for life-changing situations but if you’re playing Blackjack, it assumes that you like gambling, to begin with. You’re in the casino you’re gambling, gamble on winning that full one and half, don’t settle on the measly one unit. Furthermore, even if you do use this argument of I want a 100% chance of being happy right now, I’ll take the even money. That happiness is only going to last less than a minute until the next hand.
I think…
…you should be thinking what is going to be your happiness when you finally walk away from the table and you go home for your trip? The more money you win or the less money you lose from that sitting and the whole trip, the happier you’re going to be.
Furthermore, you’re going to get more, shall we say, action by taking that chance on winning with your blackjack. Like I said you’re gambling, to begin with, so gamble!
I can’t think of anything else to say on this topic. I hope that I’ve convinced you to always say no to insurance and even money.
Thanks, guys for listening and I’ll see you in the next video.
Use the Rubik Cube solver program to calculate the solution for your unsolved Rubik’s Cube.
On this page we’ll try to debunk the myths surrounding Blackjack Insurance and Even Money bets and explain why they are considered a sucker bet. These two bets are practically the same, their purpose is to insure yourself against dealer having a blackjack. The only difference is your hand value in each particular situation: if you have a natural (meaning blackjack) then you are offered even money, in all other cases – insurance.Blackjack Insurance
If the dealer’s face up card is an Ace, and you don’t hold a blackjack, then you will be offered to place insurance bet, which can be worth up to half of your original bet. Then, if the dealer reveals a blackjack, you lose your original bet, but paid 2 to 1 on the side bet. That’s the reason why this is called insurance, because it protects you from dealer’s blackjack. If on the other hand, the dealer doesn’t pull a 10-value card, you lose the insurance bet, while your original wager is settled in a usual way.Insurance Rules and OddsBlackjack Insurance Rule
1. First, it’s important to understand that insurance is a side bet, meaning it has no influence on your original wager, which in either case will be completed as usual. Similar to all side bets, it carries higher house edge than the basic game.
2. Second, whether insurance is a good or a bad has nothing to do with the value of your hand. Insurance gives you a chance to protect yourself against a dealer’s blackjack and it makes just as much sense to insure on 17 as it does when you have a hand totaling 20. Whether you win or lose the side bet depends solely on the dealer’s hole card, while your hand wins or loses regardless of whether or not you take the insurance bet.
3. Furthermore, you know the dealer will get blackjack around 4 out of 13 times, which is 31%. Since you’re getting 2-1 odds on insurance, you need to be right 1 out of 3 times. In other words, you need to be right 33% of the time just to break-even and that’s not going to happen.Example
Let’s say that you place a $5 insurance bet 13 times. You will win 4 times earning $40 ($10×4). You will lose 9 times – $45. Final result: minus $5, which means that in the long run, you will lose 7.7% on all your insurance bets. Doesn’t really sound like a smart move.
Are there any exceptions: if you are counting cards then yes. See the last chapter.Blackjack Insurance ExampleEven Money
If the player has blackjack and the dealer is showing an ace, then the player will be offered even money, which means getting paid 1 to 1 on blackjack rather than the usual 3 to 2. If the player doesn’t take even money and the dealer gets blackjack, then we get a tie which results in push. Even money is basically insurance against a push when you have blackjack. Taking this bet guarantees that you will get a payout, but after a quick check, you will find that even money is a horrible bet.Even Money Odds
Let’s analyse both scenarios: First, the dealer is going to push on your blackjack around 31% of the time. The probability of the dealer getting a Ten, Jack, Queen, or King can be counted by seeing how many of these cards are in the shoe. There’s four of each card, meaning there are 16 cards out of the 52 in the deck to give dealer a blackjack. Even with more decks in the shoe, the probability remains pretty much the same, which is a bit less than 31%. (We will ignore those minor differences in order not to complicate things). Thus, your chances of winning and getting a payout of 3 to 2 are 69% of the time (actually a bit more than that).
Let’s take a closer look at the difference in payouts when you take and don’t take even money. If your original bet is $100, then the expected value of taking even money is $100. That’s simple to understand.
If you don’t take the even money bet, then as we’ve already established, you have a 69.24% chance of getting a 3 to 2 payout. So the expected value of your hand is 69.24% x $150 = $104 (actually a bit less but you get the point).
So for a $100 bet, you’re better off by around $4 if you refuse the even money. It’s that simple. Of course, the casino is happy to offer this option and increase the house edge, and you will kick the table every now and then for not getting paid 3/2, but once the dust settles, you will end up with more chips in front of you and that’s all that counts.When it’s Worth Taking Insurance or Even Money?
There is one exception to this rule and that’s when the odds of the dealer to get a 10 value card are higher than 33%. The only way you can spot this opportunity is by counting cards. For example, in a single deck game, if you know that one 10 value-card is out, vs. 7 non-10 value cards, dealer’s odds of getting a natural are 15/44, or 34%. In that case insurance and even money are beneficial.
We state that just to complete the picture, but unless you are a card counter, never take insurance in Blackjack.Related PostsWhat Is Insurance In BlackjackBlackjack Split
Register here: http://gg.gg/p0gq8
https://diarynote.indered.space
Michael Shackleford: Hi guys, this is Mike and the purpose of today’s Wizard of Odds Academy lesson will be to explain why you should never take insurance in Blackjack. What insurance is, is a side bet that the dealer has a 10 point card in the hole.
The working and applicability of Blackjack insurance. If you are starting the games in Live Casinos, you have to go through the complete information about the game to have accurate moves placed.You have to act wisely to beat the opponent with sharp moves, and you should know the exact scenarios to hit perfect and hard to beat up the fixed total. So for example, if you had placed a $10 bet you will then have to wager an extra $5 for the insurance to be in play. Then, if the dealer exposes his second card and he does indeed have Blackjack, then you win your insurance $5 back as well as the other half your original bet, due to insurance paying 2:1. If the dealer’s up card (the card that is showing) is an ace, you are allowed to make an “insurance” bet. This is a side bet that the dealer has a ten-value card as the down card, giving the dealer a Blackjack. The dealer will ask for insurance bets from all players before the first player plays. Blackjack Insurance Example, discount poker tables forsale, gratis roulette spelen amsterdam casino, voetbalvereniging sloterdijk adres.
It is offered when the dealer already has an ace up, so it wins in the event that the dealer gets a blackjack. The insurance bet can be made for up to half of the player’s original bet and it pays two to one if it wins.
I’m going to…
…put a two for the pace if the dealer has a 10 point card in the hole and a negative one if the dealer has an ace and a nine which represents that the player lost his insurance bet.
Let’s assume six packs of cards, shall we?
Assuming no other information other than the ace up the dealer already has, there are 96 winning cards for the insurance bet, 16 times 6 out of 311 left. There’s 311 because a full six-deck shoe is 312 cards and we take one out because of the dealer’s ace, and there are 215 cards that will cause the insurance bet to lose.
Let’s take the product of the win and the probability.
2 times 96 over 311 is 61.74% and 215 divided by 311 times -1 is -69.13%. In other words, the player can expect to win 61.74% of his bet and lose 69.13% of his bet. We take the sum which is -7.40%. That means that for every dollar the player bets on insurance, he can expect to lose 7.4 cents or 7.4% of whatever his insurance bet is.
7.4% is a pretty high house advantage and consequently, I recommend that you say no to insurance every time. Before someone says in the comments, ’Mike, what if the count is good? What if I’m counting cards?’
Yes. Then, of course, there are exceptions. If you’ve been counting cards and you know that the remaining cards are very 10 rich, but for the recreational player that’s not counting, insurance is a terrible bet and, again, I recommend you decline it every time.
’What about even money?’
You might be asking me. Well, let me explain to you first of all, that the even money offer is the same thing as taking insurance. It’s only offered when the player already has a blackjack and the dealer has an ace up.
Let’s look…
…at what would happen both ways if the player has a blackjack and takes insurance. If the dealer ends up getting that blackjack, the main bet will push, so it wins nothing, but the insurance but will win one unit because the player bets half a unit on insurance. The insurance but pays two to one on the winning blackjack. One-half times two equals one.
Next…
If the dealer does not get that blackjack, the player’s main wager will pay one and a half but he will lose half a unit on the insurance. The combined when between the main wager and the insurance wager is one unit when the dealer does get a blackjack and one unit when the dealer does not get a blackjack.
It doesn’t make any difference whether or not the dealer gets a blackjack. If the player has a blackjack and takes insurance, he wins one unit either way and what the dealer is essentially saying is, ’Look, if you take insurance, you’re going to win one to one regardless if I have a blackjack. I may as well just pay you now before I even check what I have.”
It sounds attractive but let’s do some math and see if you should take it. Let’s evaluate the situation where the player has a blackjack, the dealer has an ace up and the player declines insurance. If the dealer has a 10 in the hole, then the player will win nothing because it will be a blackjack against blackjack tie, in other words, a push. If the dealer has anything else in the hole, the player will win his full three to two on his wager or 1.5.
Let’s assume:
knowledge of no other cards in the shoe other than what’s already on the table. There are 309 cards left out of the 312 card shoe, less than three cards already involved, the player’s ace and 10 and the dealers ace.
The probability that the dealer has a 10 in the hole is 95 divided by 309. Like I just said, there’s 309 cards left, the shoe started with 96 tens but the player has one of them. The chances that the dealer has an ace to 9 in the hole is 214 divided by 309.
Let’s examine what the player can get back either way:
If the dealer does have that 10 in the hole, the player can expect to get back nothing because the probability of zero times anything is zero. If the dealer does not have a 10 in the hole, the player can expect to get back 1.5 with a probability of 214 divided by 309. The product of those two numbers is 103.88%. If we add them up, it’s obvious you still get that same 103.88%.
What this means is…
…if the player has a blackjack, the dealer has an ace up, the player can expect to win 1.0388 times his bet or about 104% of whatever he bet. The decision to whether or not to take even money is the decision; do you want to get back an average of 103.88% of your bet or just 100%?What’s more? 100% or 103.88%? Well, 103.88% is more, therefore, if you’re seeking the greater expected value, which you should be in any casino game, you should decline even money and go for that 103.88%.
Few caveats here:
Number one - again this is assuming the player is not counting cards, just a recreational player. Number two - this is assuming that a blackjack pays three to two.
Finally, this question has come up on my forum every once in a while and a lot of people use the argument that yes, I make a good mathematical argument for declining an insurance even money but what about the psychological argument?
If you’re in this situation with a blackjack against the dealer ace, some people will say you have a 100% chance of being happy by taking the even money, locking in a sure win but only a 69.26% chance of being happy by declining the even money.
Those figures are right but…
…in the casino as well as real life, you should be long-term minded. You should be thinking what is the expected average gain for any decision that you make? Do not always play conservatively and lock in the small win when the average win by taking a chance is greater.
Of course, there are exceptions for life-changing situations but if you’re playing Blackjack, it assumes that you like gambling, to begin with. You’re in the casino you’re gambling, gamble on winning that full one and half, don’t settle on the measly one unit. Furthermore, even if you do use this argument of I want a 100% chance of being happy right now, I’ll take the even money. That happiness is only going to last less than a minute until the next hand.
I think…
…you should be thinking what is going to be your happiness when you finally walk away from the table and you go home for your trip? The more money you win or the less money you lose from that sitting and the whole trip, the happier you’re going to be.
Furthermore, you’re going to get more, shall we say, action by taking that chance on winning with your blackjack. Like I said you’re gambling, to begin with, so gamble!
I can’t think of anything else to say on this topic. I hope that I’ve convinced you to always say no to insurance and even money.
Thanks, guys for listening and I’ll see you in the next video.
Use the Rubik Cube solver program to calculate the solution for your unsolved Rubik’s Cube.
On this page we’ll try to debunk the myths surrounding Blackjack Insurance and Even Money bets and explain why they are considered a sucker bet. These two bets are practically the same, their purpose is to insure yourself against dealer having a blackjack. The only difference is your hand value in each particular situation: if you have a natural (meaning blackjack) then you are offered even money, in all other cases – insurance.Blackjack Insurance
If the dealer’s face up card is an Ace, and you don’t hold a blackjack, then you will be offered to place insurance bet, which can be worth up to half of your original bet. Then, if the dealer reveals a blackjack, you lose your original bet, but paid 2 to 1 on the side bet. That’s the reason why this is called insurance, because it protects you from dealer’s blackjack. If on the other hand, the dealer doesn’t pull a 10-value card, you lose the insurance bet, while your original wager is settled in a usual way.Insurance Rules and OddsBlackjack Insurance Rule
1. First, it’s important to understand that insurance is a side bet, meaning it has no influence on your original wager, which in either case will be completed as usual. Similar to all side bets, it carries higher house edge than the basic game.
2. Second, whether insurance is a good or a bad has nothing to do with the value of your hand. Insurance gives you a chance to protect yourself against a dealer’s blackjack and it makes just as much sense to insure on 17 as it does when you have a hand totaling 20. Whether you win or lose the side bet depends solely on the dealer’s hole card, while your hand wins or loses regardless of whether or not you take the insurance bet.
3. Furthermore, you know the dealer will get blackjack around 4 out of 13 times, which is 31%. Since you’re getting 2-1 odds on insurance, you need to be right 1 out of 3 times. In other words, you need to be right 33% of the time just to break-even and that’s not going to happen.Example
Let’s say that you place a $5 insurance bet 13 times. You will win 4 times earning $40 ($10×4). You will lose 9 times – $45. Final result: minus $5, which means that in the long run, you will lose 7.7% on all your insurance bets. Doesn’t really sound like a smart move.
Are there any exceptions: if you are counting cards then yes. See the last chapter.Blackjack Insurance ExampleEven Money
If the player has blackjack and the dealer is showing an ace, then the player will be offered even money, which means getting paid 1 to 1 on blackjack rather than the usual 3 to 2. If the player doesn’t take even money and the dealer gets blackjack, then we get a tie which results in push. Even money is basically insurance against a push when you have blackjack. Taking this bet guarantees that you will get a payout, but after a quick check, you will find that even money is a horrible bet.Even Money Odds
Let’s analyse both scenarios: First, the dealer is going to push on your blackjack around 31% of the time. The probability of the dealer getting a Ten, Jack, Queen, or King can be counted by seeing how many of these cards are in the shoe. There’s four of each card, meaning there are 16 cards out of the 52 in the deck to give dealer a blackjack. Even with more decks in the shoe, the probability remains pretty much the same, which is a bit less than 31%. (We will ignore those minor differences in order not to complicate things). Thus, your chances of winning and getting a payout of 3 to 2 are 69% of the time (actually a bit more than that).
Let’s take a closer look at the difference in payouts when you take and don’t take even money. If your original bet is $100, then the expected value of taking even money is $100. That’s simple to understand.
If you don’t take the even money bet, then as we’ve already established, you have a 69.24% chance of getting a 3 to 2 payout. So the expected value of your hand is 69.24% x $150 = $104 (actually a bit less but you get the point).
So for a $100 bet, you’re better off by around $4 if you refuse the even money. It’s that simple. Of course, the casino is happy to offer this option and increase the house edge, and you will kick the table every now and then for not getting paid 3/2, but once the dust settles, you will end up with more chips in front of you and that’s all that counts.When it’s Worth Taking Insurance or Even Money?
There is one exception to this rule and that’s when the odds of the dealer to get a 10 value card are higher than 33%. The only way you can spot this opportunity is by counting cards. For example, in a single deck game, if you know that one 10 value-card is out, vs. 7 non-10 value cards, dealer’s odds of getting a natural are 15/44, or 34%. In that case insurance and even money are beneficial.
We state that just to complete the picture, but unless you are a card counter, never take insurance in Blackjack.Related PostsWhat Is Insurance In BlackjackBlackjack Split
Register here: http://gg.gg/p0gq8
https://diarynote.indered.space
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